Rational FX: Right Move House Price Index beats MoM expectations [17/01/2011]

• German CPI was the first piece of data out yesterday. It came out better both MoM and YoY. This will be seen as a good figure for the Euro zone for at least the short term and will give Trichet’s notion that interest rates could be increased in the near future more impetus.
• European CPI came out at 2.2%, slightly above the Euro zone’s desired rate of just below 2%. Yet again this may support the opinion of increasing interest rates in the euro zone to curb inflation; however this may have a crippling effect on some of the weaker economies in the euro zone.
• The Euro zone trade balance came out a lot worse than expected for the month of November, possibly due to the adverse weather conditions affecting exported trade for the euro zone. This figure contradicts the positive data that came out in the form of the CPI figures from Germany and the rest of Europe and has very little effect on the Euro zone as the headlines are still dominated by the bond auctions in Europe and Trichet’s speech regarding inflation.
• In the US we had Retail Sales figures which came out worse than previous. However the figure may not provide a fair reflection for the season as this figure was measured for December after the largest Black Friday on record in November. This had little effect on USD as this was predominately still dominated by the euro zone.
• Industrial production came out better than previous with a 0.4% increase MoM. This may stimulate the US economy on inflationary measures and could give fuel to an interest rate hike.
• The Final piece of data out on Friday is the Reuters/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which measures consumer confidence. This came in worse than previous however we saw little movement in the market. 

Today’s Market Movers

• There is no data out in the market today from the USA or Europe.
• In the UK this morning we have already had the Right Move House Price Index, both MoM and YoY. It came out a lot better than expected MoM; 0.3% and level YoY. This shows that our property market has recovered slightly which has strengthened GBP in early trading this morning.