Rational FX: ILO Unemployment Rate reaches 7.9% [16/12/2010]

Proposal for the ECB to release E bonds have been played down by Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor. However she supported the extension of the EU bailout package and QE if required.

Spain is under threat by Moody’s rating agency due to a review of its sovereign debt. It could lead to what we have seen previously, which involves each nation surrendering after much defense.

Yesterdays Market Movers

• A busy day in the UK yesterday saw ILO Unemployment Rate reach the figure s of 7.9% which was worse than previous.

• In the UK we had the Claimant Count figure which showed no movement at 4.5 % ( this is statistics of how many people are unemployed within the country)

• UK jobless claims came out better than previous MoM for November at -1.2k.  However the major data out from the UK was unemployment rate, this saw unemployment rise up to 35000 within 3 months. The data had a detrimental effect on sterling as this saw sterling lose half cent against cable and a whole cent against the Euro.

• Yesterday in the Euro zone we had data out from employment change; this data came out slightly better on previous but had very little movement on the market.

• The major discussion from the Euro zone was the notion of downgrading Spain’s credit rating from their current position of AA1 this will be seen to be inevitable in the coming months on Spain and which will play a major factor on the Euro zone.

• In the US yesterday the major data released was CPI which came out slightly worse than previous MoM and flat YoY. This had very little movement on the markets.

Today’s Market Movers

• A very busy day in the UK today with the major data coming in the form of retails sales. This data is expected to come out flat MoM and a decrease YoY, if these results are achieved this will help support a slow down in the UK economy.

• In the Eurozone today we have data from the CPI index, which is expected to come out the same as last month, so if it does we will see little movement, however a negative figure will see increased weakness in the Euro zone.

• Finally data today coming out from the US; initial jobless claims, which is expected to come out worse than previous ,this may have a negative effect on USD and the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacture  which is expected to be lower than previous and may see USD  weaken further. However with the problems in the Euro zone this may only be short term.