Good morning and welcome to today’s foreign exchange market commentary on Friday, the 17th of February.
Greece continues to hog the limelight with latest reports indicating a possible participation by the European Central Bank’s participation in the debt swap deal along with private sector lenders that could write-off €100 billion from Greece’s outstanding debt. Also chances of Greece securing the elusive €130 billion second bailout package brightened despite reports of worsening relationship with Germany over tighter supervision demands from Berlin.
The ECB debt swap deal looks complicated, if experts are to be believed. The debt held by ECB will be bought by the European Financial Stability Facility – the region’s lifeboat bailout fund. Profit arising out of the sale (not sure how that’s going to happen amid talks of 50 percent mandatory haircuts for private-sector lenders) could be distributed to the national central banks which would then decide to finance further Greek securities. This deal will ostensibly be different from the PSI negotiations dragging on for two weeks.
Also in order to exercise better control over the aid money, an escrow account may be created that would hold reserves equivalent to nine to 12 months of public funding needs. This would essentially ensure that the money is spent to service debt obligations and not spent for general government expenses.
Back home, retail sales number for January is expected today. Markets expect the number rise by 0.3 percent compared to a surprise 0.6 percent rise in December that was largely driven by huge discounts by retailers. On the other side of the pond, US inflation data is expected today afternoon with analysts forecasting CPI to fall below three per cent for the first time since April last, thus giving the Fed some legroom for future asset prurchase programs.
CURRENCY RATES OVERVIEW
GBP/EURO – 1.2026
GBP/US$ – 1.5810
GBP/CHF – 1.4523
GBP/CAN$ – 1.5740
GBP/AUS$ – 1.4679
GBP/ZAR – 12.2689
GBP/JPY – 124.99
GBP/HKD – 12.2530
GBP/NZD – 1.8895
GBP/SEK – 10.6090
For up to date LIVE rates, compare money transfer prices on our homepage
EURO: Hopes of a Greek bailout deal on Monday has driven the single currency against the dollar to a high of 1.3150 over the past 24 hours. The GBP/EUR pair however, traded higher yesterday at 1.2080. The single currency has since retraced some of the losses today and is currently trading at about 1.2040.
USD: Better than expected Philly Fed Manufacturing data and a fall in unemployment claims boosted risk sentiment yesterday. The greenback weakened against its major peers with the dollar index – a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, dropping to 79.333 from 79.641 a day earlier. The GBP/USD pair also gained ground yesterday to touch a high of 1.5817 and opens at 1.5800 today morning. Today’s focus will remain on UK retail sales and US CPI numbers.
Going on holiday? Why not compare travel money options through our sister site MyTravelMoney.co.uk and start saving!
Have a great weekend!
