Good morning and welcome to today’s foreign exchange market commentary on 18th of July.
Here are MyCurrencyTransfer.com’s top 5 currency highlights:
- BoE meet ends on positive 9-0 vote
- EUR/USD up for action ahead of spate of Eurozone data releases
- G20 meet is key risk event of the week
- Japan elections closely watched as Abe’s candidature is favored
- More rate cuts coming up for the Aussie
CURRENCY RATES OVERVIEW
GBP/EURO – 1.1616
GBP/USD – 1.5192
GBP/CHF – 1.4383
GBP/CAD – 1.6600
GBP/AUD – 1.6375
GBP/ZAR – 15.0895
GBP/JPY – 152.8349
GBP/HKD – 11.7855
GBP/NZD – 1.9275
GBP/SEK – 10.0251
Mid-market rates as of 2013-07-18 16:00 UTC
Key releases in the next 24 hours that may affect currency date:
Australia: AUD NAB Business Confidence (2Q)
Europe: CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (JUN)
United Kingdom: GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN), GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (JUN)
New Zealand: No Data
United States of America: USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 12), USD Fed’s Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Policy Report to Senate, USD Philadelphia Fed. (JUL), USD Leading Indicators (JUN)
China: No Data
Canada: CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (JUL 17)
Japan: JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 12), JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 12)
BoE meet ends on positive 9-0 vote
Today’s commentary on GBP will focus on recent BoE decisions and reflects on yesterday’s outcome. The BoE meet’s outcome was a unanimous decision with a rare 9-0 vote to maintain the current level of asset purchases disclosed in the minutes released from the last MPC meeting gave the GBP the boost it sorely needed. New governor Carney has already made an immediate impact at the BoE with the unanimous vote more likely reflects the Monetary Policy Commitee moving towards a ‘stock take ‘mode at the new Governor’s first meeting.”
EUR/USD up for action ahead of spate of Eurozone data releases
On Thursday, Germany’s Producer Price Index data along with some other minor releases are due from several EU countries. Aside from that, the action in other asset classes like stocks and bonds may end up driving the trading action in EUR/USD pair.
G20 meet is key risk event of the week
Up ahead the important event of the week is that the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors are gathering for a two-day meeting in Moscow. Traders in the US will be more interested in this discussion as it may impact monetary stimulus situation in the US as its eventual withdrawal in the context of volatility following June’s FOMC meeting, where the Fed introduced the idea of “tapering” its asset purchases. The announcement has sent bond yields soaring around the world as traders unwound positions dependent to cheap QE-linked financing, forcing undesired tightening.
Japan elections closely watched as Abe’s candidature is favored
The markets will be keeping a close eye on the outcome of Japan’s upper-house elections. The latest polls suggest Shinzo Abe’s LDP party will expand its mandate, allowing the Prime Minister greater scope to push forward the fiscal side of his aggressive program to lift Japan out of deflation.
More rate cuts coming up for the Aussie
Analysts have forecasted three more rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 2% by the March quarter of 2014. Market pricing has fluctuated markedly over the last few months with current pricing settling around almost two cuts by that time. Only recently markets were questioning whether indeed any more cuts would be forthcoming so it is difficult for agents to base medium term decisions purely around market pricing.
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