Rational FX: Sentix Investor confidence expected to strengthen Euro [07/02/2011]

There were no figures from the UK and Euro-Zone on Friday.

In the US the Non-Farm payroll figure was a disappointment and came in much lower than expected at 36,000 jobs created from a previous 121,000. The results were mainly from the weather conditions and less weekly average working hours required in the US.

The main focus in the US was the unemployment figure which came in much better at 9.0% from 9.5% this was the lowest reading since November 2009 and shocked the market as although the Non-farm was negative we still witnessed huge improvements with unemployment in the US and saw the US Dollar strengthen and trade to the lower end of 1.60 level from 1.6120.

However, driven by the encouraging unemployment rate, US stocks recovered from early losses. This indicated ‘risk appetite’ as investors put their money back into equity market. We saw GBP/USD finish the day at higher end of 1.60 level and trade above 1.6080 during the weekend. EUR/USD found support at 1.3540 and traded below 1.3580 during the weekend.

There is no data from the UK today.

In the Euro- Zone we will have the Sentix Investor confidence which is expected to come in better than previous and we could see this strengthen the Euro.

Germany Factory orders MoM and YoY are coming out afterwards, which will illustrate the shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders.  MoM is expected to come out lower, and YoY is expected to come out better. It could be an inflationary factor for Germany. If YoY comes out as predicted, we might see another push for the Euro.

In the US we are going to have consumer credit figure which is expected slightly higher. It will probably show more consumers borrowing and therefore be positive for the economy. We could see this strengthen the US Dollar as this is showing more spending in the econmony.