Rational FX: Sterling falls against USD due to low consumer confidence [31/01/2011]

The pound fell against the US dollar as a report showed consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 20 years due to increase in sales tax reducing spending power.

GDP in the US increased by a staggering 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010 driven by the biggest gains in consumer spending in more than four years. An increase in Reuters consumer sentiment in economic activities also added to risk appetite.

However the US dollar and the Swiss franc advanced against the Euro due to the unrest in Egypt as protesters took to the street to cause mayhem. The dollar rose 0.8% against the Euro to 1.3631.

There is no significant data out in the UK. However form the Eurozone in Germany we have already seen Retail sales figures drop substantially YoY and MoM allowing the markets in the UK to open above 1.16 level.

In the US we are set for the release of Personal consumption expenditure. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. This is expected to rise by 0.2%.