Good morning and welcome to today’s foreign exchange market commentary on Friday, the 24rd of February.
The market focus has now shifted to debt consolidation and economic expansion (or the lack of it if you may, the glass is always half empty!) in the EU region. Not that it was not a constant worry for the global markets, the Greek saga had however, managed to push it out of the frame for nearly six months now. The much touted contagion theory, in effect, is coming true. Germany’s economy shrunk by 0.2 percent in the Oct. to Dec. quarter last year. According to preliminary data published last month, UK’s GDP also slipped by the same amount in Q4, 2011. That brings us at par with Berlin.
The blame for the recent slowdown would probably lie with the peripheral so called GIIPS nations. However, Germans are hopeful of turning the tide in 2012, and the economy is expected to grow by 0. Percent, while France expects economic activities to rise by a modest 0.4 percent. The IMF’s forecasts are not upbeat about the region’s GDP growth though. It estimates German and French economies to shrink by 0.5 percent while UK will fare worse and shrink by 0.8 percent. Greece will however slip for the fifth year on the trot.
CURRENCY RATES OVERVIEW
GBP/EURO – 1.1764
GBP/US$ – 1.5740
GBP/CHF – 1.4190
GBP/CAN$ – 1.5710
GBP/AUS$ – 1.4689
GBP/ZAR – 12.0025
GBP/JPY – 126.790
GBP/HKD – 12.2060
GBP/NZD – 1.8809
GBP/SEK – 10.4085
EUR: The single currency sizzled against its global peers yesterday and rallied against the cable and the greenback on better-then-expected German IFO number. The GBP/EUR pair slipped to 1.1766 while the EUR/USD pair traded at 1.3374, its highest level in past 10 weeks. The stronger than expected IFO number, indicator of business sentiments, clearly shows markets don’t expect Europe’s powerhouse to shrink further. A big development for today was Berlin’s fiscal deficit, a measure of the difference in government earning and spending, coming down to 1 percent. It’s a huge improvement by any standards over last year’s reading of 4.3 percent. There economic data calendar is light today and we have the G20 meeting scheduled for the weekend. The GBP/EUR pair opens at 1.1792 this morning.
USD: The greenback retreated against most of its global peers as risk appetite improved. The IFO index in Germany showed business confidence rose to 109.6 in February fro 108.3 a month earlier. Europe’s biggest economy has remained relatively unscathed by the Greek crisis. The dollar index, the barometer of the USD’s performance against a basket of six others, slipped to 78.677 from 79.207 on Wednesday. Sterling traded higher against the USD yesterday hitting an intraday high of 1.5739. The momentum continues as the GBP/USD pair opens at 1.5775 this morning.
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Have a great weekend!
